Contacts between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan had been frozen for nearly two years. Apparently, the fundamental negotiations were also frozen. The quick, almost formal meetings on different levels weren’t goal-oriented. The absence of meetings of the presidents was explained by the presidential elections and internal political issues in both countries. No matter how predetermined the results of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan were, Aliyev had concerns and was in panic because the opposition could have blamed him for relations and negotiations with Armenia, and that would create more tension in the country with khan-like “stipulations” and might have made the opposition members more active, especially since there are several social issues in that country. In addition to interior political issues, Ilham Aliyev was also concerned about the positions of the West and Russia. The West, particularly the OSCE co-chairing countries, weren’t showing interest in the negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict-something that was explained by the crisis in Syria and Russia-West relations. It is no secret that there was strong resistance between Russia and the West since each of them wants to strengthen positions in the South Caucasus and declare dominance. The Karabakh issue is only a derivate issue in this big political game, but Russia and the West are interested in creating new tandems, particularly with specifications on relations with Iran and Turkey. In their turn, Turkey and Iran have their own interests. Each of them wants to become the one that calls the shots in the region and establish its presence. So, the South Caucasus is currently in the focal point of the most intricate developments where the Karabakh issue may become either regulatory or disorientating. It’s obvious that Russia needs to play with the Karabakh “playing card” more than the other countries since it has recently lost many bases in the region, doesn’t have an influence on Georgia and can’t rely on its influence on Azerbaijan due to the fact that the official Baku constantly brings changes to the political and geopolitical developments and changes the “vector” of those developments from time to time. The only thing for sure is that there is an Azerbaijan-Turkey tandem that is making great efforts to involve Georgia in the process, but the presidential elections and the formation of a new government in this country might change a lot of things…

The West’s impact on the region is also at risk since the Customs Union, which is in formation, might completely push the West away from developments in the region. Therefore, in spite of the lack of adopted decisions and in-depth agreements, the Serzh Sargsyan-Ilham Aliyev meeting is observed in this context of intricate issues. The President of Armenia viewed the meeting in Vienna as “normal”, but didn’t make any statement. Ilham Aliyev didn’t make a statement either. Instead, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs made a statement in which they informed that the meetings will continue. The subtexts aren’t clear, and so, some political commentators predict new “Key-West versions”, while others are certain that the negotiations will continue on the basis of the Madrid Principles and that there won’t be new approaches…

Irrespective of what kinds of commentaries will be made, this meeting showed that the West’s great interest in the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting already reminds us that its position will be decisive in decision-making processes, and one can already guess that position. Recently Chancellor of Federal Germany Angela Merkel sharply criticized Russia’s pressures on the Eastern Partnership, and this means that there will be a silent struggle between the Customs Union and the Eastern Partnership. And Karabakh can’t be left out of this resistance…

Levon Mutafyan